Service Plays Friday 4/30/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

New Addition to Service Play Forum..Specifically for posting additional topics.

The Rx.com Mod Team has created this Service Play sub-forum in order to supply an area for Rx Service Play Posters to expand upon their posting topics without creating a logjam in the main forum where the three principle threads are maintained..

Posters can track services here if they care to but we will need any trackers to do so in an accurate and civil manner. We did not create this area for posters to ridicule or bash any services..

You can also discuss who is hot and who is not. The general state of the pay for plays industry and any other subject or topic related to service plays.

You can also create individual threads about specific services and discuss them freely but civilly. Again bashing and abusive treatment of any services will not be tolerated.

Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post ther daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

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Lastly The Rx Moderators are appealing to you our everyday posters to report any promotional threads or posts that are made by services or individual touts. No links or contact information to an individual service will be allowed. Just the name of the service. Please report any threads or posts that are promotional attempts by services and touts to use this forum to promote themselves..

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I will leave this thread open for a month to take questions and do my best to answer them. I will check in daily but am off on Wednesday and Thursday.

I hope this additional Service Play Forum will satisfy those posters that would like to widen the scope of topics relating to service plays and the industry in general to have their own threads. Mods will be liberal as possible regarding topics but this forum was specifically created to allow you more freedom to express your ideas regarding service plays and related subject matter. No off topic threads will be allowed.

Thank you, wilheim




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[ugk]

NBA NEWS AND NOTES
GAME OF THE DAY
LA Lakers at OK City Thunder
By Lee Kostroski

Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5, 195)

Not Your Typical Series

Oklahoma City won Games 3 and 4 at home to knot the series up at two games apiece. The Lakers returned to Los Angeles on Tuesday and rocked the Thunder by 24 points to put them within a game of closing out the series. Oklahoma City is 29-14 at home this season (24-19 ATS) while Los Angeles is 23-20 on the road (18-24-1 ATS).

Head To Head

The Thunder prevented a regular-season sweep by winning the final meeting 91-75 on March 26. That win seemed to give them a sense of confidence against Los Angeles. OKC now needs a win to force a Game 7 on Sunday.
In Tuesday’s Game 5, Oklahoma City recorded just seven fast break points after recording 72 in the first four games. The Thunder made it to the line 24 times (making 18) in Game 5 after 80 free throw attempts in Game 3 and 4 alone.
The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings in Oklahoma City.
We’ve seen home-court advantage play a huge role in this series. Will OKC continue its dominance at home or will Los Angeles steal one and close out the series on the road?

Win Or Go Home

The Lakers made some key adjustments in Game 5 by swapping Kobe Bryant off of Kevin Durant and putting him on Russell Westbrook. It threw off Westbrook and drained less of Bryant’s energy on defense.
Westbrook averaged 21.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists while making more than 55 percent of his shots in the first four games. But in Game 5 Bryant harassed Westbrook into a 4-for-13 shooting while forcing eight turnovers.
"That's Kobe," Westbrook said. "That's who he is. That's why he's probably the best player in the league."
NBA coach of the year Scott Brooks adjustments have been masterful in this series. He’s done a good job of coming up with schemes to stop Kobe, holding him to 21.8 PPG this series (-5.2 PPG off regular season average). They’ve also held the Lakers to just 95.6 PPG, keeping them under 100 points in four of five games of this series.
The Thunder have done a great job against Bryant at home, holding him to 15 of 39 shooting (38 percent) and 36 points.
Sometimes wins can’t be assessed with stats. In all the games this series, the home crowd has certainly made a bigger difference than stats can analyze. The electricity at Ford Center overwhelmed the Lakers in Games 3 and 4. And the buzz around Staples Center in Game 5 seemed to lift the Lakers to a blowout victory.

L.A. Story

Ask Los Angeles coach Phil Jackson what the key to winning Game 5 against the Thunder and he’ll give you a rather simple answer.
"It was just raw energy. That's all there it was to it."
The Lakers stormed out to a big lead by going into the paint early and often. Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum combined for 46 points and 22 rebounds.
This isn't a make-or-break game for the Lakers. Should they need it, the seventh and deciding game would take place Sunday at Staples Center. But history appears to be on the Lakers' side; the Purple and Gold are 17-0 after winning Game 5 at home.
Still, the Lakers would surely like to end this series sooner rather than later.
"We don't want to try to stretch this out," Lakers forward Pau Gasol said, "and give them another chance."
The extra rest between games seemed to help Jackson's boys quite a bit. The Lakers looked old and slow in Game 4 but with a couple of days off, they bounced back to get a blowout victory in Game 5. Once again, they get a couple of days off to prepare for Game 6.
"I think it helped all of us, not just from a physical standpoint, but more so even just from a strategic standpoint of really gaining an understanding of the things that happened the first three or four games and what we could do going into the fifth game that could work well for us as a group," Derek Fisher said.
Said Bryant: "We know they're going to come back strong, make their own adjustments and come back with their best game in front of their fans, so we've got to improve even more."

Key Statistical Information - Away/Home Comparisons

Points per Game
Los Angeles: +0.3 PPG
Oklahoma City: +5.9 PPG
Field Goal Percentage
Los Angeles: +0.5%
Oklahoma City: +3.0%
Rebounding
Los Angeles: +1.1 RPG
Oklahoma City: +3.7 RPG

Trends

Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games and 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a SU win.
Oklahoma City is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games playing on two days' rest.

 

[ugk]

PICK 'N' ROLL

Friday's Best NBA Bets

Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks (+2, 190)

Who would have thought after the first two games in this series that Milwaukee would have a chance to close things out at home in Game 6?
But that’s where we’re at after the Hawks lost at home on Wednesday night, falling for the third straight time in the series.
The way Atlanta lost might be difficult to forget. Milwaukee closed on an 18-5 run to win 91-87.
"This has to be (only) a memory," Hawks super sub Jamal Crawford told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "If you think about this, you'll already be down going into Milwaukee. You have to let it go and come out with a win. It's not over."
The Hawks’ offense has been ugly all season. They play way too much one-on-one and don’t get many easy looks for teammates. That flaw is now being exploited by a team that works its tail off on defense.
Atlanta won’t be able to fix its problems in one game, especially not on the road where they’ve been terrible for the last three seasons.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks


Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz (-4.5, 218)

The Nuggets finally woke up and played a good 48 minutes against the Jazz. But Denver faces another elimination game and this time it’ll be on Utah’s home floor.
You’ve got to wonder if Denver will be able to repeat their shooting performance from Game 5, when it shot over 50 percent from the field and beyond the arc. And the chances of Denver shooting 17 more free throws than the Jazz at Utah can’t be very good.
The Jazz have to feel good about their situation. They rarely lose in their own gym and the Nuggets aren’t having any luck slowing down Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer. Utah’s dynamic duo is averaging 50.8 points so far in the series.
Denver got good news when it found out that starting center Nene knee injury is just a day-to-day thing. Reports say he could return for a Game 7 but that won’t help them any for Friday’s Game 6.

Pick: Utah Jazz

 

[ugk]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Friday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

The Friday night baseball card provides bettors with several surprise teams looking to make more money. Two of the teams with the best records in the National League are the Mets (13-9) and Padres (13-8), while the Dodgers, Braves, Brewers, and Cubs all sit below .500. There aren't many surprises in the American League as the top teams are the Rays, Yankees, Twins, and Angels, while the Red Sox sit at 11-11. We'll start in Philadelphia as the Phillies return home to host the red-hot Mets.

Mets at Phillies - 7:05 PM EST

New York is starting to hit its stride with seven straight home victories, as the Mets and Phillies meet up for the first time this season. The Mets are coming off series wins over the Braves, Cubs, and Dodgers, while winning nine of ten. The Phillies avoided a sweep with a come-from-behind win at San Francisco on Wednesday.

This isn't exactly an ace showdown on the mound, as Jonathon Niese and Kyle Kendrick toe the rubber. Niese has turned in two solid performances in a pair of no-decisions against the Cubs and Braves. The lefty allowed two runs (one earned) and 13 hits despite pitching just 10.1 innings, as the Mets won both of his previous two starts. Niese has not faced the Phillies in his career, while making only his fourth road start since 2008.

Kendrick has put together just one quality outing in four trips to the mound this season, replacing the injured Joe Blanton. Kendrick has given up 16 earned runs in two starts against the Nationals and one outing at Arizona, boosting his ERA to 7.71. The Phillies have provided the righty with plenty of run support, tallying seven runs/game for Kendrick. Philadelphia beat New York last September as Kendrick scattered seven hits and two earned runs in 7.1 innings in a 5-4 victory.

The Phillies captured 12 of 18 meetings last season from the beat-up Mets, including a 7-2 mark at Citizens Bank Park. New York has finished 'under' the total in nine of the last 14 games, as the Mets are playing only their seventh road game of the season.

Angels at Tigers - 7:10 PM EST

Detroit and Los Angeles meet up for the second time in ten days after the two clubs split a four-game set in Anaheim. The Angels grabbed the first two games before the Tigers rallied for the final two victories, each coming by a run apiece. The Halos open up a ten-game, three-city road trip that goes from Detroit to Boston and wrapping up in Seattle.

Joel Pineiro pitched a gem the last time he saw the Tigers, scattering nine hits in seven scoreless innings as the Angels shut out Detroit, 2-0 on April 19. Pineiro struggled for the first time in an Angels uniform as the Yankees tagged the righty for six runs and 11 hits in a 7-1 New York victory last Saturday. Dating back to last season as a member of the Cardinals, Pineiro's teams are 9-3 when he starts on the road.

The Tigers send out Rick Porcello to the hill, looking for his first win since April 9. Porcello will be looking forward to returning home after a pair of disastrous road losses at the Rangers and Angels. The righty was knocked around by the Halos in a 6-5 setback, allowing six earned runs and eight hits in 4.1 innings. Porcello picked up a no-decision in a 9-6 win over the Angels last June at home, as he gave up four earned runs and five hits in five innings.

The Tigers are 0-5 the last five series openers, while the Angels are 5-2 in series starters this season. Similarly to the Mets, the Halos are heading on the road for just their seventh away contest of the season.

Rangers at Mariners - 10:10 PM EST

Cliff Lee makes his much-anticipated Seattle debut on Friday at Safeco Field after missing the first month of the season with a strained abdominal muscle. Lee and the Mariners return home following a 2-4 road trip as Seattle grabbed the final two games at Kansas City. The Rangers head to the Pacific Northwest after a 4-3 homestand against the Tigers and White Sox.

The last time the Rangers saw Lee was on Opening Day last season in Arlington. Coming off a Cy Young Award in 2008, the ex-Indian was lit up by the Rangers in a 9-1 defeat, allowing seven earned runs and ten hits in five innings of work. Lee finished 7-4 over the last three months of 2009 as a member of the Phillies, including a 4-0 postseason mark. In seven career starts at Safeco Field, the Indians went 6-1 in Lee's outings, including a 12-3 victory last July in his final start in a Cleveland uniform.

Colby Lewis gets the ball for Texas, looking for his fourth victory of the season. Lewis has recorded ten strikeouts each in victories over the Indians and Tigers, while the righty allowed one earned run in seven innings of a 6-2 win over the Mariners on April 9. The righty has turned into a workhorse by tossing at least 100 pitches in each of his first four starts, while leading this Rangers staff in victories.

Texas captured two of three against Seattle at home earlier this month, with the lone Mariners' victory coming with a three-run rally in the ninth. Seattle is 5-2 the last seven meetings with Texas at Safeco Field, with the 'under' going 4-2-1 in this span.

Rockies at Giants - 10:15 PM EST

San Francisco continues its nine-game homestand, going for a third straight series victory after topping St. Louis and Philadelphia. The Giants host the Rockies for the first time this season, looking to bounce back from Wednesday's late meltdown to the Phillies in extra-innings.

Tim Lincecum was pitching a gem, tossing 8.1 innings of flawless baseball while leaving Wednesday's game with a 4-1 lead. Jayson Werth's three-run double barely squeezed inside the right-field line to tie the game and force extras. The Phillies eventually won, 7-6 in 11 innings to avoid the sweep. Now, the Giants send out their second-most reliable pitcher of the season against the Rockies.

Barry Zito owns a sterling 3-0 mark with an ERA of 1.32, following years of struggles in the month of April. Since 2007, Zito was 0-9 in April prior to his sudden improvement in the first month of the season. The former Cy Young Award winner has given up just four earned runs in four outings, capped off by a ten-strikeout performance in a 2-0 blanking of the Cardinals his last time out. Zito beat the Rockies in three of four of outings last season, with all three victories coming at AT&T Park.

The Rockies send out Aaron Cook to the hill, looking to capitalize off a complete-game victory over the Marlins. Cook had allowed 12 earned runs in his first four starts before beating Florida, but his road ERA has ballooned to 9.72. Cook's previous five starts against the Giants have come at Coors Field, as the righty last pitched by the Bay in April 2008. The veteran has lasted past the seventh inning in five of the last seven starts against the Giants, as the Rockies are 4-3 in this stretch.

The home team finished 13-5 last season in this series, while the Giants went 10-8. Despite Colorado going to the postseason in 2009, San Francisco stayed alive in the playoff race with five wins over the Rockies in the last six meetings at home.

 

[ugk]

HOT LINES

Friday's Best MLB Bets

Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers (-255, 9)

Pittsburgh pitcher Charlie Morton has been consistently bad this season. In four starts, the right-hander has lasted just 13 1/3 innings, allowing 28 hits and 24 earned runs.
A demotion to the minor leagues could be on the horizon for Morton if he doesn't turn it around against what could be a fired-up Dodgers club that was recently called out by general manager Ned Colletti about their poor play, particularly center fielder Matt Kemp.
"Why is it? Because he got a new deal?," Colletti told 790 AM KABC. "Can't tell you. But you know, it's below-average. If this is the last day of the season and people are voting for the Gold Glove, his name is not even on the ballot.
"It's a shame that he would go from where he was a year ago to revert back to when the ball goes up in the air and you're not sure where it's going, or if it's going to get caught."
Kemp, who won a Gold Glove last season, has one error in 47 chances this season for a .979 fielding percentage, a shade below the league average. Fair or not, a teammate getting called out often creates an environment where his teammates rally around him.
It doesn't hurt that L.A. will send Chad Billingsley to the hill. The hard-throwing right-hander is 4-0 lifetime against the Bucs, including a dominating win over them earlier this month.
Expect the Dodgers to snap out of their offensive funk tonight at Chavez Revine.

Pick: LA Dodgers


Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs (-165, OFF)

While the debate over a new immigration law rages in Arizona, several Diamondbacks are having no problem crossing the border in Chicago - over the ivy walls of Wrigley Field.
Former Braves teammates Adam LaRoche and Kelly Johnson combined to go 7-for-9 with three home runs and eight RBIs in Thursday's 13-5 win. Johnson leads the NL with nine homers and LaRoche has raised his average by .150 points since last season (think the Braves want them back now?).
The D-backs defeated Colorado 12-11 on Wednesday and the over is 7-2-1 in their last 10 road games.
"Obviously that's a lot of runs for two days," LaRoche told mlb.com. "But I think we're showing some signs of what we can do throughout the whole lineup."
Of course, it helped that the wind was blowing out to left at more than 20 mph. The forecast calls for the same wind pattern today and scheduled starts Rodrigo Lopez and Randy Wells aren't going to scare hitters or Mother Nature.
Thursday's total jumped from 11.5 to as high as 13 before the matinee but the D-backs matched that number by themselves and Friday's total is still of the boards.
No matter the number, the ballpark simply isn't big enough to hold that many blown fly balls.

Pick: Over

 

[ugk]

NHL NEWS AND NOTES
NHL EASTERN CONFERENCE
Round 2 Preview And Picks
By RYAN STETSON

What, No Ovechkin-Crosby Showdown? Bullocks.

As tasty as that matchup would have been, the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs has some great storylines in its own right. Jaro Halak’s superman routine, Sid the Kid taking aim at the Great One’s playoff scoring record, Boston and Philly defying the odds to make it this far. This is going to be fun. Get your bets in, everybody.

(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens

There’s no rest for the wicked in the Stanley Cup playoffs and the Montreal Canadiens are set to find that out in a hurry. After Jaroslav Halak single-handedly shut down the high-flying Caps, he gets only a single day to soak it in before lining up against Sidney Crosby and Co. Nobody said this was going to be easy, Jaro.

One thing Halak does have going for him is a team that’s as willing to block shots as much as he is and Montreal will need that to continue, starting with the puck drop Friday night. The Penguins have to be on high alert after watching the Habs crawl back into that series against Washington.

For Habs bettors, that has to be worrisome. The Pens aren’t going to take Montreal lightly. Even more worrisome? Sidney Crosby grew up a Canadiens fan and has always had a flair for the dramatic against hockey’s most historic club.

Watch out if Evgeni Malkin really gets going, too. He had some moments in the first round that looked a lot more like his great run in the playoffs last year than his ho-hum, 77-point regular season. Keep in mind, the guy only played 67 games this year and appears to be fresh when it matters most.

Looking down the lineups, it’s hard to see how Montreal will be able to handle Pittsburgh’s depth, experience and firepower. Then again, that’s what we said about the Habs last round. Halak may get them a couple games, but this Cinderella story stops here.

Pick: Penguins In Six Games

(6) Boston Bruins vs. (7) Philadelphia Flyers

With a week left in the regular season, it looked as though both of these clubs could end up on the outside looking in on the NHL playoffs. Instead, they’re now squaring off for a chance to go to the conference finals. If you remember this year’s Winter Classic, you know we’re in for a dandy matchup here.

Most of the numbers look good for the Flyers so far, namely .940 and 1.59 – Brian Boucher’s save percentage and goals-against average in the first round. But Philadelphia does have some issues heading into Game 1. Jeff Carter and Simone Gagne are both out with foot injuries and won’t be available against Boston, which is a huge hit to Philadelphia’s power play. The Flyers themselves were no strangers to the penalty box in the first round, handing the Devils 32 power-play opportunities.

Plus, does anybody really trust Brian Boucher yet? He’s always been a streaky goalie and it’s hard not to wonder when the other shoe is going to drop. Maybe he’s finally proving the critics wrong, or maybe he’s a bad goal away from disaster. Flip a coin.

You don’t feel the same way about Boston’s Tuukka Rask, even though he’s a 23-year-old rookie. This kid’s put a Vezina Trophy winner on the pine – enough said.

If you’re looking for blood, this is your series of choice. The B’s and Flyers have been at each other for decades and we should be in for some old-time hockey here, so special teams could easily turn out to be what tips the balance of power.

The Bruins struggle to score a lot of nights, but getting Marc Savard back on the ice is a huge boost, considering they converted on six of 22 power plays in the first round without him. He had 17 power-play points in only 41 games during the regular season.

It’s going to be a nasty one, but the Bruins get the edge in goaltending and special teams.

Pick: Bruins In Seven Games

 

[ugk]

ICE PICKS

Friday's Best NHL Bet

Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins (-277, 5.5)

Do the Habs have anything left after a heart-stopping, seven-game series against the Capitals? Montreal came back from a 3-1 deficit against the top-seeded Caps despite getting outshot 134-66 over the final three games.

Montreal backers better hope so because the Penguins are rested, ready and experienced. The Canadiens exploited Washington’s weak goaltending, but they shouldn’t find Pens netminder Marc-Andre Theury as easy to solve.

Fleury, who was a rock for the Pens during their Cup runs in the last two seasons, went 3-1 with a 2.12 goals-against average versus the Habs during the regular season.

Sidney Crosby’s line will look a little bit different for Game 1. Coach Dan Bylsma threw Ruslan Fedotenko onto the big line in practice this week because of the injury to Chris Kunitz. Fedotenko was a healthy scratch for most of last series against the Sens.

Expect some carryover for Habs goalie Jaroslav Halak in the first game of the series.

Pick: Under

 

[99steak]

Bettingresource
29-18-2 (61.70%) +88.62 Units so far.
Posted/monitored in the tracker forum http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=766847

For today they have:


Apr 30: MLB: Texas - Seattle
Pitchers: List Lee & Lewis
Pick: Texas win Odd: 2.38
Risked: 7 units Return:

Apr 30: MLB: Pittsburgh - LA Dodgers
Pitchers: Billingsley & Morton
Pick: LA Dodgers -1.5 Odd: 1.92
Risked: 7 units Return:

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Proffesional tipster 25-14-6 (1-0)

Sedan - Guingamp Sedan +0

Strasbourg - Nimes Strasbourg +0

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Super Pogodak 73-70-2 (0-1)

Celje - Rudar Kakanj
Bet on Celje to win @2.00 (expekt-sportingbet)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

"Bulgarian Paid service" 49-46 (2-1)


SN1 Celje - Rudar Kakanj ,bet on Celje@1,95

HN1 Ferencvarosi TC - Ujpest FC ,over 2.5@ 1,80

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

sampicks

France - Ligue 1 - 20:00 GMT
AUXERRE - MARSEILLE take MARSEILLE +0
Best odds: 1,74

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

soccerpluss 30/04/2010

Argentina - Primera Division 30/04/2010 4:59PM

6010 - River Plate - 6011 Velez Sarsfield
play on : 6010 River Plate p.k. and -0,5 (Ah -0,25) 1,763 @pinnaclesports
with 4u

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Papayagang - Pick of the day 3 20* 4/30

20* SL Cards ML
20* SF Giants ML
20* NY Yanks RL

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NBA

Season
Straight Up: 846-363 (.700)
ATS: 647-599 (.519)
ATS Vary Units: 1533-1444 (.515)
Over/Under: 616-638 (.491)
Over/Under Vary Units: 806-839 (.490)

Eastern Conference Playoffs, 1st Round
Game 6, best-of-7 series
MILWAUKEE 97, Atlanta 92
Western Conference Playoffs, 1st Round
Game 6, best-of-7 series
OKLAHOMA CITY 102, L.A. Lakers 98
UTAH 112, Denver 105

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NHL

Season: 435-294 (.597)

Eastern Conference Playoffs, Semifinals
Game 1, best-of-7 series
PITTSBURGH 4, Montreal 3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Twins on Thursday.

Friday: Hawks. Deficit: 700 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS ADVISORS

FRIDAY, APRIL 30

NBA PLAYOFFS

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlanta (2-3 SU and ATS) at Milwaukee (3-2 SU and ATS)

The sixth-seeded Bucks aim to finish off a first-round upset when they return home to the Bradley Center for Game 6 against the reeling Hawks. Milwaukee trailed 82-73 with four minutes left in Game 5 on Wednesday night, then went on a stunning 14-0 run and held on for a 91-87 upset as a hefty nine-point underdog. The Bucks, who have won three in a row SU and ATS since dropping Games 1 and 2 in this series, got outshot 43.4 percent-40.5 percent, going 30 of 74 from the floor while Atlanta went 36 of 83. But Milwaukee made 8 of 19 three-pointers (42.1 percent), while the Bucks were just 2 of 11 (18.2 percent) from long range. Milwaukee also had a big advantage at the charity stripe in Game 5, going 23-for-29, while Atlanta earned just 17 trips to the line and made 13. Brandon Jennings led the Bucks with 25 points, including a 7-for-8 effort at the free-throw line. Atlanta got 25 points and 11 rebounds from Al Horford, and 22 points from Marvin Williams, but top scorer Joe Johnson mustered just 13 points before fouling out with 2:13 left, in the midst of his team’s late-game collapse, as the Hawks missed seven consecutive shots during the Bucks’ decisive rally. Milwaukee is 30-13 SU (26-16-1 ATS) in the home jerseys, putting up 100.3 ppg and giving up 96.6, despite getting outshot 45.5 percent to 44.3 percent. The Bucks lost their last two regular-season home starts – including one to Atlanta – but are still 14-2 SU (11-4-1 ATS) in their last 16 at the Bradley Center, scoring SU and ATS wins over the Hawks in Games 3 and 4. Meanwhile, Atlanta stands at 19-24 SU (23-20 ATS) on the highway this season, averaging 98.7 ppg on 46.2 percent shooting, while allowing just a smidge less at 98.5 ppg (46.7 percent shooting). Milwaukee’s 3-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry follows a 4-0 ATS surge by Atlanta. The chalk is 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings between these two, and the SU winner is 16-3-1 ATS in the last 20 clashes, including 5-0 in this series. Also, in Atlanta’s last 23 playoff contests, the SU winner is a torrid 22-0-1 ATS, and the SU winner is 11-0-1 ATS in Milwaukee’s last 12 overall. The Hawks are in ATS funks of 1-5 after a non-cover, 0-5 coming off a SU loss and 1-6 on Friday, but they still carry positive ATS streaks of 9-4 against winning teams, 5-2 as a chalk and 5-1 laying less than five points. Meanwhile, the Bucks are on pointspread sprees of 37-14-2 overall, 14-4 as an underdog, 17-5-1 after a day off, 36-13-2 after a spread-cover, 33-16-2 after a SU win and 8-1-1 on Friday, though they are also 3-8-1 ATS in their last dozen as a playoff ‘dog. Although Wednesday’s game fell short of the 191½-point price, the total has still gone high in 11 of the last 13 meetings overall in this rivalry, with the last six in a row at the Bradley Center hurdling the posted price. In addition, the Bucks are on a plethora of “over” sprees, including 7-3 overall, 7-0-1 at home, 15-5-2 in first-round playoff games, 10-2 against winning teams and 37-18 as a home pup. Finally, Atlanta is on “over” runs of 6-3 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 4-1 as a road chalk, 10-2 laying less than five points on the road, 7-2 against winning teams and 21-8 following a non-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


WESTERN CONFERENCE

L.A. Lakers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) at Oklahoma City (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS)

The defending NBA champion Lakers head to the Ford Center in Oklahoma City looking to finish off the young Thunder in Game 6 of this best-of-7 opening-round series. Los Angeles took a 3-2 series lead with a 111-87 blowout win on Tuesday, easily cashing as a six-point home chalk. The Lakers raced out to a 14-1 lead to start the game and had a 31-16 advantage after one quarter and never looked back, shooting 53.8 percent from the floor. Pau Gasol led the way with 25 points and Andrew Bynum chipped in 21 and both big men also pulled down 11 rebounds. Defensively, they held Oklahoma City to just 36.9 percent shooting. The Lakers have won 15 of the last 18 (7-11 ATS) in this rivalry, but the Thunder have won three in a row in Oklahoma City (SU and ATS), including a 110-89 blowout win in Game 4 on Saturday as a one-point favorite. Los Angeles is 23-20 (17-25-1 ATS) on the road this season, but they’ve dropped six of seven (SU and ATS) overall on the highway. Inside the Ford Center, the Thunder are 29-14 (24-19 ATS), including an ongoing 13-3 run over their final 16 home games (10-6 ATS). The Thunder haven’t been in the playoffs since 2005 when the franchise was the Seattle SuperSonics and they reached the Western Conference semifinals, losing to the Spurs 4-2 (3-3 ATS), after beating Sacramento 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in the opening round. The Lakers’ march to the title last season included a 4-1 (2-3 ATS) series win over the Jazz, 4-3 (SU and ATS) over the Rockets, 4-2 (3-3 ATS) over the Nuggets and then 4-1 (SU and ATS) over the Magic in the NBA Finals. L.A. has reached the postseason five straight times and 15 times in the last 16 years. Despite Tuesday’s rout, it’s been nothing but negative ATS trends for Los Angeles, including 2-6 overall, 1-6 on the road, 1-10 after a spread-cover, 0-4 as an underdog and 0-5 on the road against teams with winning home records. Conversely, Oklahoma City is on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 49-21 after a straight-up loss, 23-9 on Friday, 10-3 after two days off, 4-0 at home, 7-1 at home against teams with winning road records and 21-10 against winning teams. The Lakers have topped the total in five of seven overall and six of eight on the road, but they are on “under” streaks of 7-0 on Friday, 20-6 after two days off, 11-4 as road ‘dogs and 23-9 against Northwest Division teams. The Thunder have stayed below the number in seven of eight Friday games, but they are on “over” runs of 6-2 overall, 4-0 as a favorite, 7-3-1 as a home chalk and 5-2-1 after a non-cover.
In this series, the “over” has cashed in each of the last three games, including both matchups in Oklahoma City.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY


Denver (2-3 SU and ATS) at Utah (3-2 SU and ATS)

The Jazz return home to EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City for Game 6 of their best-of-7 Western Conference first-round series, trying once again to finish off the fourth-seeded Nuggets. Denver staved off elimination on Wednesday with a 116-102 home win, cashing as a seven-point chalk and drawing to 3-2 in the series. The Nuggets shot 50.7 percent from the floor and outscored Utah 66-50 in the second half. Carmelo Anthony paced Denver with 26 points and 11 rebounds, but the All –Star got a lot of help, including 21 points from Chauncey Billups, 18 from Kenyon Martin and 17 from J.R. Smith. The Nuggets lead the season series 5-4 (4-3-2 ATS), but lost Games 3 and 4 in Utah by wide margins, including Sunday’s 117-106 setback in Game 4, failing as a 2½-point underdog. The Jazz are on a 3-1 ATS surge in this series and the chalk is 28-12-3 ATS in the last 43 meetings. The road has been rough on Denver this season as it fell to 19-24 (15-23-5 ATS) with Sunday’s loss in Utah, and the Nuggets are just 2-8 (1-8-1 ATS) in their last 10 on the highway. On the other hand, the Jazz are a dominating 34-9 in front of the home fans (28-13-2 ATS), winning 12 of their last 13 in Salt Lake City (10-3 ATS).
The Jazz were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs a season ago by the Lakers in five games (3-2 ATS). They’re in the postseason for the fourth consecutive year, but have lost four of their last six first-round series. The Lakers also took out the Nuggets on their way to the NBA title, topping Denver in six games (3-3 ATS) in the Western Conference Finals. Prior to meeting Los Angeles, the Nuggets had won eight of 10 playoff contests in the first two rounds – eliminating New Orleans and Dallas – while going 10-0 ATS. This is Denver’s sixth consecutive playoff appearance after a nine-year drought from 1995-2003. Denver is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 first-round playoff games, but otherwise the team is on a host of negative pointspread slides, including 6-14-1 overall, 1-8-1 on the road, 6-16-4 after a spread-cover, 1-5 on Friday, 1-6-2 as a ‘dog and 1-8-1 after one day off. Utah is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven Friday contests, but it is otherwise on ATS surges of 34-16-3 overall, 25-9-2 at home, 24-9-2 as a home favorite, 20-6 after a straight-up loss and 39-19-2 as a favorite of less than five points. The Nuggets have topped the total in six of seven overall and six of seven against winning teams, but they are on “under” streaks of 5-2 on the road, 28-18 as an underdog, 21-6 as a playoff pup and 21-8 in first-round playoff games. The Jazz have stayed below the number is nine of 12 Friday affairs, but they are on “over” surges of 4-1 overall, 4-0 after a straight-up loss, 22-6 against Northwest Division teams and 6-1 against teams with winning records. In this rivalry, the “under” is 5-2 in the last seven clashes in Utah, but the “over” is 6-1 in the last seven meetings overall, with four of five in this playoff series clearing the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and OVER


NATIONAL LEAGUE

N.Y. Mets (13-9) at Philadelphia (12-9)

The red-hot Mets go after their eighth straight victory when they pay their first visit of the season to Citizens Bank Park for an N.L. East clash with the Phillies. Young left-hander Jonathan Niese (0-1, 3.68 ERA) is set to take the mound for New York opposite Kyle Kendrick (0-0, 7.71). New York wrapped up a three-game sweep of the Dodgers – and a 10-game homestand – with Wednesday’s 7-3 home victory. The Mets went 9-1 on the homestand, outscoring the opposition 45-14 in the nine wins, and during the 10-game stretch the pitching staff posted a 2.09 team ERA. Jerry Manuel’s club is on additional surges of 6-0 against right-handed starters, 4-1 on Friday and 6-2 in series openers, but they’re still just 15-38 in their last 53 against N.L. East rivals and 6-16 in their last 22 versus winning teams. Philadelphia rallied for a 7-6, 11-inning victory at San Francisco on Wednesday to salvage a three-game series against the Giants and end a nine-game road trip. The Phillies were dominated for 8 1/3 innings by Tim Lincecum on Wednesday, but once the two-time reigning Cy Young winner departed, Philadelphia overcame a 4-1 deficit with two outs in the ninth to tie the game, then won it with two runs in the 11th.
Since starting the season 8-2, the Phillies have lost seven of 11, including two straight at home. They’ve also dropped six of seven to left-handed starters and four straight at home against lefties, yet the two-time defending N.L. champs are on positive runs of 37-14 after an off day and 13-5 when opening a series.
Philadelphia went 12-6 against the Mets last year, and after losing four of the first five meetings, the Phils went on to win 11 of the last 13, including six of seven at Citizens Bank. Niese was on the mound for two of New York’s wins during its recent homestand, handcuffing both the Cubs (one unearned run in 5 2/3 innings of a 6-1 victory) and Braves (one run allowed in 5 1/3 innings of a 3-1 win). However, his worst start of the 2010 came in his only road outing, as he got rocked for five runs on nine hits in five innings at Colorado, getting a no-decision in a 6-5 loss. In his brief career, Niese is 1-0 with a 6.60 ERA in three road starts. Tonight marks his first career meeting with Philadelphia. Kendrick failed to capitalize on his best start of the season (eight shutout innings at Atlanta on April 20), getting rocked for five runs on eight hits in five innings of Sunday’s 8-6 loss at Arizona. The right-hander has given up at least five runs in three of his four starts, and his worst outing to date came at home on April 14, when he lasted just 1 2/3 innings and yielded six runs, but his offense bailed him out in rallying for a 14-7 win.
Philly has lost four of Kendrick’s last five starts overall, but they’re 5-2 in his last seven at home and 6-1 the last seven times he’s started on Friday. Also, Kendrick has been outstanding in five career starts against New York, giving up one or two earned runs in each contest while going 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA. The Mets are on “under” runs of 9-4-1 overall, 5-0 against N.L. East foes, 4-0 in series openers and 4-1-1 behind Niese. The under is also 17-5-1 in Philadelphia’s last 23 Friday affairs and 4-1 in its last five divisional games. On the flip side, though, the Phillies carry lengthy “over” streaks of 34-15-2 overall, 10-2-1 at home, 5-1 after a day off and 8-3 against southpaw starters. And with Kendrick starting, the over is on upticks of 32-12 overall, 5-1 at home, 6-1 on Friday and 9-3 against the N.L. East. Finally, these teams stayed under the total in 10 of their final 12 meetings last year, including six of the last seven in Philadelphia.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER


AMERICAN LEAGUE

L.A. Angels (12-11) at Detroit (13-10)

For the second time in 10 days, the Angels and Tigers hook up, this time at Comerica Park, with Joel Pineiro (2-2, 3.42) matching up against Detroit’s Rick Porcello (1-2, 7.91) in the opener of a three-game series. Los Angeles got an RBI bunt single from Howie Kendrick in the bottom of the ninth inning Wednesday to rally past the Indians 4-3 and cap a season-long 10-game homestand that began with a four-game series against Detroit. Since a five-game winning streak – which included three straight road wins – the Angels have split their last eight contests, but they’re also on hot streaks of 4-1 on the road, 8-3 on Friday, 7-2 against winning teams, 13-6 after an off day and 4-0 in series openers. Detroit finished a three-game series against Minnesota with Thursday’s 3-0 shutout win, getting six strong innings from Dontrelle Willis. In taking the final two games against the Twins, the Tigers improved to 6-3 at home this season. However, Jim Leyland’s squad has dropped 13 of 16 to open a series and six of seven on Friday. These teams split their four-game set in Anaheim earlier this month, with Los Angeles taking the first two contests (2-0 and 6-5) and Detroit posting one-run wins in the last two (4-3 and 5-4). The Angels remain on a 49-23 overall run against the Tigers. After three straight quality starts to begin his Angels career – four runs allowed in 19 1/3 innings, including a 2-0 win over the Tigers on April 19 – Pineiro imploded his last time out against the Yankees, giving up six runs on 11 hits in six innings of a 7-1 loss. In his only road start this year, the right-hander dominated the Yankees in a 5-3 victory, allowing just a run on five hits and no walks with seven strikeouts in seven innings. In between his two starts against New York, Pineiro blanked the Tigers over 7 1/3 innings, scattering nine hits with no walks and four strikeouts. He’s 7-2 with a scant 2.40 ERA in 12 career games (10 starts) against Detroit, including 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in three games (two starts) at Comerica Park. Porcello is coming off consecutive ugly outings, both on the road, giving up six runs each against the Angels (4 1/3 innings) and Rangers (four innings), and he lost both games by scores of 6-5 and 8-4. The right-hander was much better in his first two starts, both at home, giving up five runs in 11 innings (4.09 ERA) against the Indians and Royals. Still, though, Porcello has allowed 33 hits and six walks in 19 1/3 innings. Going back to last year, the Tigers are 1-5 in Porcello’s last six starts overall, but they’ve won 12 of his last 16 at home and four of his last five on Friday. Also, including his outing in Anaheim 10 days ago, Porcello has faced the Angels twice, giving up a combined 10 runs on 13 hits and five walks in 9 1/3 innings, but the Tigers pulled out a 9-6 home win in Porcello’s first start against L.A. last June. The Halos sport “under” streaks of 20-6 on the road, 13-3 against right-handed starters on the road and 12-5-1 in series openers. The under is also 6-2-2 in the Tigers’ last 10 Friday contests and 6-0 in Porcello’s last six on Friday. Conversely, though, Detroit is on “over” surges of 5-2-1 overall, 5-2 at home, 4-0-1 versus the A.L. West and 4-1 overall with Porcello starting.
Finally, the under is 6-2-1 the last nine times the Angels have visited Motown.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Moneylineking
10-3 Run (77%)

Fri
Cleveland -121
Cleveland-1.5
Atlanta -171
Atlanta -1.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bookie Monster

Fri
SF Giants -124